Tuesday, May 29, 2012

US Expels Syria Envoy To Pressure Russia, China

The State Department has announced the expulsion of Syrian Charge D'Affaires Zuhair Jabbour from the United States.  He will have 72 hours to leave the country.  The expulsion, which follows a string of expulsions by European states earlier today, comes in the wake of a brutal assault on the Syrian city of Houla in which 108 civilians were killed, many of them children. 


Expulsion of diplomatic staff is a serious move in international diplomacy which sends a strong message to the target of the expulsion.  However, since the emergence of protests in Syria in January 2011, Syrian President Bashar Assad has shown little concern for the opinion of the international community.  The killings in Houla are the latest in a series of attacks by Syrian government forces on civilians in the country.  Additionally, Assad enjoys the backing of Russia and China, two global and regional powers with vetoes at the UN Security Council.  While the US expulsion of the Charge D'Affaires sends a strong symbolic message, it is unlikely to alter significantly the calculus of the Syrian President.  It is unlikely, of its own accord, to save lives in Syria.


Rather, the expulsions (which were likely coordinated) are probably intended to put pressure on Russia and China.  Arab states and citizens can see very clearly which countries have and have not expelled Syrian diplomats in the wake of the attacks in Houla.  The expulsions illustrate a clear divide between the US and its Western allies on the one hand, and Russia and China on the other.  Both Russia and China are already under international pressure for standing against an earlier UNSC resolution on Syria this past February.  They now will be under heightened pressure to be less active in their support of President Assad.  While by this point they are unlikely to call for Assad to step down, their hesitation to condemn the attacks in Houla will harm the legitimacy of their Syria policies.  This increases the leverage of the United States and Western powers who seek a resolution to the situation in Syria which involves the restoration of peace and order and the ouster of President Assad.


Thus the expulsion of Syrian diplomats has less to do with immediate leverage in Syria, and more to do with the long game.  The US and its allies are posturing for maximum maneuvering room in Syria, and key to this strategy is pressuring Russia and China to stand aside.  Regardless of whether the endgame in Syria involves military intervention, the multilateral coalition which coordinated expulsion solidifies will be an important component of any successful strategy.

5 comments:

  1. nice posting.. thanks for sharing..

    ReplyDelete


  2. شركة نقل عفش
    اهم شركات مكافحة حشرات بالخبر كذلك معرض اهم شركة مكافحة حشرات بالدمام والخبر والجبيل والخبر والاحساء والقطيف كذلك شركة رش حشرات بالدمام ومكافحة الحشرات بالخبر
    شركة مكافحة حشرات بالدمام
    شركة تنظيف خزانات بجدة الجوهرة من افضل شركات تنظيف الخزانات بجدة حيث ان تنظيف خزانات بجدة يحتاج الى مهارة فى كيفية غسيل وتنظيف الخزانات الكبيرة والصغيرة بجدة على ايدى متخصصين فى تنظيف الخزانات بجدة
    شركة تنظيف خزانات بجدة
    شركة كشف تسربات المياه بالدمام
    شركة نقل عفش واثاث

    ReplyDelete


  3. شركة نقل عفش بالرياض وجدة والدمام والخبر والجبيل اولقطيف والاحساء والرياض وجدة ومكة المدينة المنورة والخرج والطائف وخميس مشيط وبجدة افضل شركة نقل عفش بجدة نعرضها مجموعة الفا لنقل العفش بمكة والخرج والقصيم والطائف وتبوك وخميس مشيط ونجران وجيزان وبريدة والمدينة المنورة وينبع افضل شركات نقل الاثاث بالجبيل والطائف وخميس مشيط وبريدة وعنيزو وابها ونجران المدينة وينبع تبوك والقصيم الخرج حفر الباطن والظهران
    شركة نقل عفش بجدة
    شركة نقل عفش بالمدينة المنورة
    شركة نقل اثاث بالرياض
    شركة نقل عفش بالدمام

    ReplyDelete