Tuesday, March 29, 2016

The Hebron Shooting And Civil-Military Relations In Israel

An IDF soldier who shot an already-incapacitated Palestinian stabber in Hebron last Thursday has drawn widespread sympathy from Israeli MKs and the Israeli public. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yaalon find themselves facing criticism for suggesting that the soldier should be subject to the judicial processes of the IDF. The resulting debate raises three important points about civil-military relations in Israel.


First, the Israeli public trusts greatly the IDF as an institution, but also supports individual soldiers. A 2016 survey of surveys by Tiargan-Orr and Eran-Jona found that even during periods of relative quiet in Israel, 71% of the Israeli public "trusts IDF senior commanders" and 76% "have confidence in the IDF's fighting abilities." As the vanguard of the state, and an institution in which nearly all Israelis serve, the IDF is a highly respected entity. 

At the same time, Israelis want assurances that their sons and daughters have the tools and rules of engagement they need to protect themselves in combat. A letter by the mother of the soldier who shot the Palestinian man in Hebron reveals a sense of betrayal by the establishment. She writes, "he isn't just my son, he is the child of all of us," This statement is evidence that public opinion over the incident is shaped by the question, "What if it had been my son?"

Second, the IDF's rule-based order is generally effective but lacks support from politicians. Footage of IDF soldiers using force in a confrontation with civilians is often designed to portray the military as unprofessional and haphazard. In individual cases this may very well be the case, as it could be with any military. At the same time, the IDF's reaction to Thursday's killing was prompt. The soldier was arrested the same day, and a murder indictment has already been filed. This comes after discussion that the charge would only be manslaughter. The IDF is taking the incident seriously in a way that befits a military in a liberal democracy. No doubt, the IDF also understands the international political implications of video footage of the incident which has been disseminated widely over social media. 

This response is indicative, however, of an ongoing process by which the IDF is forced to compensate for the failure of Israel's political establishment. That the IDF leadership has come under fire from Knesset members for investigating a murder caught on camera is not only a shocking statement of apathy for non-Israeli lives, but an abandonment of political responsibility. In a media storm where critics of Israel are rushing to portray this incident as "more of the same," the IDF has been abandoned by Knesset members who should be supporting a fair and impartial investigation. Militaries sometimes do things that are unpopular. In the US, PFC Bowe Berghdahl was given a hero's welcome upon his release by the Taliban, only to be charged with desertion by the Army. In such cases, political leaders should stress the importance of a fair and thorough judicial process as prescribed by law.


Finally, there is a low appreciation among publics, including the Israeli public, for nuanced responses to terrorism. Importantly, this is not the position of the IDF, which has invested in both non-lethal and semi-lethal weapons systems. A Channel 10 news report frames the Hebron shooting as "an IDF soldier who shot a terrorist and is now being indicted." It omits any reference to the fact that the terrorist in question was incapacitated when shot. Stabbing a soldier may be terrorism but it does not dissolve all legal protections afforded to either civilians or enemy combatants. Support for the soldier seems to be based in a perception that terrorists waive all of their rights after having committed an attack - even if they no longer pose a kinetic threat to soldiers. Even if he had been wearing a suicide vest, it seems unlikely that the IDF's standard operating procedure would call first for shooting the suspected bomber in the head - as opposed to moving at-risk individuals out of a potential blast zone.

The United States has seen similar apathy towards the legal protections of terrorists. In 2014, a majority of Americans supported torture to extract information from suspected terrorists. The point here is that Israelis are by no means unique in their willingness to deny rights protections to terrorists. But whether or not it is popular, such actions may violate international law and the laws of both the United States and Israel. 

Finding a balance between rights and security is a core challenge of liberal democracies under threat from terrorism. As a country at the forefront of this fight, Israel's adherence to its own laws and judicial process is what will ultimately allow it to find a balance between the two.

Tuesday, March 22, 2016

AIPAC Must Restore Focus On Shared Values

AIPAC President Lillian Pinkus may be disappointed that her constituents applauded Donald Trump's attacks on President Obama, but she cannot possibly be surprised. Out of 18,000 people, the chances not one would respond to an attack on President Obama are virtually zero. Those concerned by the content of Donald Trump's comments should not be persuaded by the crocodile tears shed at this morning's plenary. 

AIPAC's 2016 Policy Conference was carefully designed to absolve the organization of responsibility for comments it knew Trump would make. The religious appeals and calls for bipartisanship provided a backdrop for AIPAC's leadership to state that it was shocked, shocked that Donald Trump would make comments beyond the scope of AIPAC's bipartisan platform. This morning's apology was a calculated political move designed to let AIPAC have its cake and eat it too.

AIPAC has also engendered some of the very sentiments to which its leadership now takes offense. In 2011, a spat between President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu over the 1967 lines played out at AIPAC. Yet speaker after speaker publicly expressed support for Netanyahu and tacit disapproval of President Obama. Last summer, AIPAC spent $30 billion dollars to counter the Iran nuclear agreement, the centerpiece of President Obama's Middle East foreign policy. AIPAC can hardly be shocked that after these initiatives, its constituents are willing to applaud attacks on the President of the United States.

The deeper problem facing AIPAC, however, is one of values. While it may have provided them with a platform, AIPAC is not responsible for the beliefs of the Republican candidates for president. Nor should it go over the slippery slope of picking and choosing which candidate is tolerant enough to deserve a platform on the AIPAC stage. However, it should take seriously the fact that many of these candidates' statements contradict the values at the heart of the US-Israel relationship. 

If the US and Israel are to have a strong relationship, they must come together - not around an Islamophobic fear of the other but around a firm determination to protect the values enshrined in their founding documents. Liberal values - tolerance, freedom of expression, pluralism, and self-reflection - are at the heart of the American and Israeli national project. Without a mutual commitment to these values, the US-Israel relationship is not sustainable. If AIPAC is offended by statements that contradict these values, it should work to bring citizens in both countries together who support them.

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Three Things To Watch For At AIPAC Policy Conference 2016

AIPAC's annual policy conference begins Sunday, March 20th. The conference will be the last of President Obama's term and features several Democratic and Republican candidates who seek to replace him. The annual conference is an important indication of AIPAC's political priorities. This year there are three issues that analysts of US-Israel relations should watch closely.

1) Moving past a major loss on the Iran Nuclear Agreement. Last summer, AIPAC lobbied the US Congress to disapprove the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed between the P5+1 and Iran on July 14, 2015. The lobbying effort involved about $30 million worth of ad buys, but was unsuccessful. AIPAC's lobbying campaign was strategic in that it did not directly target the White House. However, its position was directly opposed to that of the Obama Administration. The arguments it invoked during the campaign ranged from reasonable (the IRGC could use sanctions relief to buy rockets for Hizbollah) to totally unsubstantiated (the agreement raises the prospects of war). This approach alienated Democrats who understood the JCPOA as the centerpiece of the Obama administration's Middle East legacy. AIPAC's loss has not suffered the kind of "lasting damage" predicted in the Washington Post at the time. However, it showed again that AIPAC - like any Washington lobbying group - is capable of losing.

Now that JCPOA has been implemented, AIPAC has followed the Netanyahu government's lead, accepting it as ground truth and focusing on strict monitoring of violations instead. This policy line allows AIPAC to project toughness on Iran to conservatives while smoothing over ties with liberals whom it alienated during the Iran deal debate. During the policy conference, expect monitoring Iran's violations of the nuclear agreement to be a major theme. 


2) Explaining Bibi Netanyahu's Turning Down a White House Invitation - Rather than giving an in-person address as he has done in years past, Israel's Prime Minister will address AIPAC via satellite. Netanyahu had planned to come to Washington but later cancelled his visit citing President Obama's trip to Cuba at the same time. The White House, however, claimed it had offered Netanyahu a meeting with the President but was turned down. Analysts speculate the cancellation may be a result of negotiations over a new defense aid agreement between the US and Israel. Some speculate Netanyahu believes he can get a better deal from the next administration, which is likely true. 

For some in Washington, the cancellation represents another example of Prime Minister Netanyahu's disdain for President Obama. However, deliberate spurning is an unlikely motivation given that Netanyahu has come to AIPAC Policy Conference and the US Congress during the Obama presidency to appeal to the US public - including for positions that contradicted US policy. Nonetheless, the cancellation could leave a bad taste in the mouths of more liberal Israel activists who see US-Israel tensions as the Prime Minister's doing.


3) Managing Donald Trump's Address at AIPAC - AIPAC prides itself on bipartisanship. Like him or not, Donald Trump is the Republican presidential front runner, and there is a realistic chance he will be the next President of the United States. Given these conditions, it would be a poor strategic move for AIPAC to deny him a platform to speak. Such a move would involve a high cost to AIPAC's relationship with Trump supporters, Republican Party operatives, and a prospective President Trump. 

Nonetheless, AIPAC's invitation has appeared to some as a legitimization of Trump's Islamophobic, intolerant, and racist comments at a conference that highlights shared liberal democratic values between the US and Israel. Even conservative analyst (and Rubio adviser) Max Boot has indicated disapproval of the speech. Trump's speech may harm AIPAC's reputation among liberal and progressive supporters of Israel even after the conference is over. 

In addition, Trump's speech is generating friction between AIPAC and leaders in the Jewish community. Student leaders have also expressed concern over the speech. Jewish leaders of conscious are correct to take seriously the fact that AIPAC is giving a political platform to a man who has called for a national registry of religious minorities. AIPAC is obviously not doing so as a matter of deliberate strategy. However, it should also be mindful about how it presents the context of this speech, lest its conference theme of "coming together" be overshadowed by partisan controversy.



Monday, March 7, 2016

Does Israel's Joint List Support Hezbollah?

Members of the Balad and Hadash parties condemned the GCC today for declaring Hezbollah a terrorist organization. The condemnation, which drew a sharp rebuke from Prime Minister Netanyahu and other Knesset members, is puzzling. Why issue a statement of support for a group that shoots rockets at Israeli civilians, both Jewish and Arab? Why should Sunni parliamentarians condemn a Sunni coalition for calling an Iran-linked Shi'a group a terrorist organization?" Why make a comment at all given the domestic challenges Israeli Arabs and Palestinians in the West Bank face?

The comments come in the wake of several incendiary events involving the Joint List. In February, three Arab MKs were suspended after meeting with the families of terrorists over negotiations to release their bodies. Last week, the head of the Joint List, Ayman Odeh, accused Israel's Shin Bet of killing Yasser Arafat, a claim which extensive investigations have not substantiated. The Israeli media have covered these statements, understandably, within a narrative framework of incitement and radicalism within the Arab parties. However, there are more specific explanations that can explain today's reaction over the GCC's labeling of Hezbollah.

Domestically, internal party politics may be driving some these radical statements. MK Ayman Odeh, the head of the Joint List, is from Hadash. The Joint List also includes Balad, whose founder Amzi Bishara is accused of passing intelligence to Hezbollah during the 2006 war. While Balad and Hadash are part of same list at the moment, they have different histories and platforms. Balad sees Israel's exclusion of Arab citizens as illegitimate and seeks a bi-national state. Hadash is rooted in Israel's first communist party and has a more policy-focused agenda (withdrawal from the West Bank, worker's rights, and equality for Arab citizens). While Balad's members have never feared being controversial, it is noteworthy that their statements of late have demolished any chance of the Joint List joining the government. The question of joining has been raised in the recent past, and Ayman Odeh has pursued a somewhat less radical agenda than his Balad counterparts. A Balad strategy of making controversial statements spoils any chance that the Joint List would join - and thus legitimize - the current government.

For MK Odeh, maintaining Balad's support is critical for a Joint List that can have policy influence. In this context, siding with Balad MKs on Hezbollah shows alignment. It is also consistent with Hadash's international communist platform since it sees Hezbollah as "resistance." Tunisia's UGTT workers union condemned the news on the same grounds. Furthermore, since Jewish Israelis condemn Arab parties all the time, they likely perceive the cost of public scorn as relatively low so long as it builds support among their electoral constituency.


Regionally, the Joint List may fear that the GCC's decision to label Hezbollah a terrorist organization further normalizes GCC-Israel relations. Normalization is a process that Palestinian activists oppose on the grounds that it reduces pressure on Israel to change its West Bank policies. If the GCC is seeking regional alignment with Israel to balance against Iran, it is less likely to speak out on Palestinian rights issues. Condemning the decision plays well with supporters of Palestinian rights in Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza who fear that the issue is being drowned out in light of the plethora of other problems in the region.

In addition, a more sectarian region hurts Arab unity. The Palestinian situation as a pan-Arab issue is inextricably connected to this unity. So long as sectarianism persists in the region, the logic goes, Arab states can never join together to force a solution to the conflict. Since the GCC's declaration of Hezbollah as a terrorist organization is on sectarian grounds, such a move harms the unity that is key to solving the Palestinian problem.